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From Minority Games to real markets

Authors: D. Challet a;  A. Chessa b;  M. Marsili c; Y-C. Zhang a
Affiliations:   a Institut de Physique Theacuteorique, Universiteacute de Fribourg, Peacuterolles CH-1700, Switzerland.
b Dipartimento di Fisica and Unitaacute INFM, Universitaacute di Cagliari, I-09124 Cagliari, Italy.
c Istituto Nazionale per la Fisica della Materia (INFM), Unitaacute di Trieste-SISSA, I-34014 Trieste, Italy.
DOI: 10.1080/713665543
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 1, Issue 1 January 2001 , pages 168 - 176
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

We address the question of market efficiency using the Minority Game (MG) model. First we show that removing unrealistic features of the MG leads to models which reproduce a scaling behaviour close to what is observed in real markets. In particular we find that (i) fat tails and clustered volatility arise at the phase transition point and that (ii) the crossover to random walk behaviour of prices is a finite-size effect. This, on one hand, suggests that markets operate close to criticality, where the market is marginally efficient. On the other it allows one to measure the distance from criticality of real markets, using cross-over times. The artificial market described by the MG is then studied as an ecosystem with different species of traders. This clarifies the nature of the interaction and the particular role played by the various populations.
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