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Regression Estimation from an Individual Stable Sequence

Authors: Gusztaacutev Morvai a;  Sanjeev R. Kulkarni b; Andrew B. Nobel c
Affiliations:   a Technical University of Budapest, Hungary
b Princeton University, USA
c University of North Carolina, USA
DOI: 10.1080/02331889908802686
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Statistics, Volume 33, Issue 2 1999 , pages 99 - 118
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

We consider univariate regression estimation from an individual (non-random) sequence ./GSTA_A_8802686_O_XML_IMAGES/GSTA_A_8802686_O_ILM0001.gif   , which is stable in the sense that for each interval ./GSTA_A_8802686_O_XML_IMAGES/GSTA_A_8802686_O_ILM0002.gif   (i) the limiting relative frequency of A under x1, x2,… is governed by an unknown probability distribution μ, and (ii) the limiting average of those yi with xA is governed by an unknown regression function m(·).

A computationally simple scheme for estimating m(·) is exhibited, and is shown to be L2 consistent for stable sequences lcub(xi, yi)rcub such that lcubyircub is bounded and there is a known upper bound for the variation of m(·) on intervals of the form (-i, i], i > 1. Complementing this positive result, it is shown that there is no consistent estimation scheme for the family of stable sequences whose regression functions have finite variation, even under the restriction that xi ∈ [0,1] and yi is binary-valued.
Keywords: Nonparametric estimation; regression estimation; individual sequences; ergodic time series
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