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What good is a volatility model?

Authors: R. F. Engle; A. J. Patton
DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/1/2/305
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2 February 2001 , pages 237 - 245
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

A volatility model must be able to forecast volatility; this is the central requirement in almost all financial applications. In this paper we outline some stylized facts about volatility that should be incorporated in a model: pronounced persistence and mean-reversion, asymmetry such that the sign of an innovation also affects volatility and the possibility of exogenous or pre-determined variables influencing volatility. We use data on the Dow Jones Industrial Index to illustrate these stylized facts, and the ability of GARCH-type models to capture these features. We conclude with some challenges for future research in this area.
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