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Correlation structure of extreme stock returns

Authors: P. Cizeau a;  M. Potters a; J-P. Bouchaud a
Affiliation:   a Science & Finance, The Research Division of Capital Fund Management, 109-111 rue Victor-Hugo, 92532 Levallois Cedex, France.
DOI: 10.1080/713665669
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2 February 2001 , pages 217 - 222
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time-independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant factor, we show that most of these correlations, measured by a variety of different indicators, can be accounted for. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations. However, more subtle effects require an extension of the one-factor model, where the variance and skewness of the residuals also depend on the market return.
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