Time-varying factor models for equity portfolio construction
Authors:
Markus Ebner a;
Thorsten Neumann b
| Affiliations: | a Union PanAgora Asset Management GmbH, Germany |
| b Union Investment Institutional GmbH, Germany |
DOI:
10.1080/13518470801892194
Publication Frequency:
8 issues per year
First Published:
July
2008
Subject:
Finance;
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Abstract
Most equity risk models applied in practice assume stable return correlations over time. However, there is considerable evidence suggesting that correlations among stock returns and hence, variance-covariance matrices (VCMs) become unstable over time. In this paper, we account for correlation instabilities in US stock returns and derive VCMs from time-varying factor model estimates. To do so, we use three different estimation approaches: (1) moving window least squares, (2) flexible least squares and (3) the random walk model. Our empirical results suggest that a time-varying estimation of return correlations fits the data considerably better than time-invariant estimation and thus, increases the efficiency of risk estimation and portfolio selection.
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| Keywords: portfolio construction; stock betas; time-varying estimation |
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