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Time-varying factor models for equity portfolio construction 

Authors: Markus Ebner a; Thorsten Neumann b
Affiliations:   a Union PanAgora Asset Management GmbH, Germany
b Union Investment Institutional GmbH, Germany
DOI: 10.1080/13518470801892194
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal The European Journal of Finance, Volume 14, Issue 5 July 2008 , pages 381 - 395
First Published: July 2008
Subject: Finance;
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Most equity risk models applied in practice assume stable return correlations over time. However, there is considerable evidence suggesting that correlations among stock returns and hence, variance-covariance matrices (VCMs) become unstable over time. In this paper, we account for correlation instabilities in US stock returns and derive VCMs from time-varying factor model estimates. To do so, we use three different estimation approaches: (1) moving window least squares, (2) flexible least squares and (3) the random walk model. Our empirical results suggest that a time-varying estimation of return correlations fits the data considerably better than time-invariant estimation and thus, increases the efficiency of risk estimation and portfolio selection.
Keywords: portfolio construction; stock betas; time-varying estimation
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