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Nonparametric prediction intervals for explosive ar(1)-processes 

Authors: Winfried Stute a; Bernhard Gruumlnder a
Affiliation:   a Math. Institut, Universitaumlt GieBen,
DOI: 10.1080/10485259308832549
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Volume 2, Issue 2 1993 , pages 155 - 167
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

In this paper we construct prediction intervals for an explosive AR(1)-process, which conditionally on the observables contain an s-step shead future value with a given coverage probability. It is shown implicitly that for prediction purposes the excellent convergence properties of the LSE are balanced by the explosive behavior of the observables so as to yield a nondegenerate distributional limit of conditional coverage probabilities.
Keywords: Prediction intervals; explosive time series; coverage probability
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