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South Asia's Nuclear Decade 

Author: Bruce Riedel - Bruce Riedel is Senior Fellow for Political Transitions in the Middle East and South Asia at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution. He retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2006 after a 30-year career that included overseas postings. He was a senior adviser on South Asia and the Middle East to three US presidents and organised President Clinton's trip to India in 2000.
DOI: 10.1080/00396330802034291
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Survival, Volume 50, Issue 2 April 2008 , pages 107 - 126
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

In May 1998 India surprised the world by testing five nuclear weapons, and despite the pleas of the international community, Pakistan followed suit a few days later. The global effort to halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons in South Asia never recovered. The recent United States-India nuclear deal is a wise accommodation to reality but puts no constraints on the nuclear arms race in South Asia. Meanwhile, Pakistan is unlikely to conclude such a deal, especially given the A.Q. Khan affair. In the last decade the two neighbours have fought a small war and mobilised for a much larger one, and cross-border terrorism could provoke another crisis at any time. The danger of a nuclear confrontation remains serious and should be addressed by creative diplomacy to deal with the underlying issues that have divided the subcontinent since partition in 1947, most notably Kashmir.
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