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On Functional Central Limit Theorems for Semi-Markov and Related Processes 

Authors: Peter W. Glynn a; Peter J. Haas bc
Affiliations:   a Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
b IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, California, USA
c IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA, USA
DOI: 10.1081/STA-120028680
Publication Frequency: 20 issues per year
Published in: journal Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Volume 33, Issue 3 January 2004 , pages 487 - 506
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The semi-Markov process (SMP) has long been used as a model for the underlying process of a discrete-event stochastic system. Important refinements of this model include the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) and important extensions include the generalized semi-Markov process (GSMP). Functional central limit theorems (FCLTS) give basic conditions under which these various processes exhibit stable long-run behavior, as well as providing approximations for cumulative-reward distributions and confidence intervals for statistical estimators. We give FCLTS for finite-state CTMCS, SMPS, and GSMPS under minimal conditions that involve irreducibility and finite second moments on the “holding time” distributions. We consider both continuous and lump-sum rewards; our emphasis is on the use of martingale theory and on the explicit computation, when possible, of the variance constant in the FCLT.
Keywords: Semi-Markov processes; Markov chains; Central limit theorem; Martingales; Discrete-event systems
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