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Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS 

Authors: F. FernAacutendez-RodrIacuteguez a;  S. Sosvilla-Rivero b; J. Andrada-FEacutelix a
Affiliations:   a Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.
b FEDEA and Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Jorge Juan 46, 28001, Madrid.
DOI: 10.1080/09603100210100891
Publication Frequency: 24 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Financial Economics, Volume 13, Issue 2 February 2003 , pages 113 - 122
Number of References: 42
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

This article assesses the economic significance of the non-linear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1 January 1978-31 December 1994 period, it considers nearest- neighbour non-linear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. The results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a non-linear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.
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