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Uncertainty propagation in wildland fire behaviour modelling 

Authors: Andreas Bachmann; Britta Allgoumlwer
DOI: 10.1080/13658810110099080
Publication Frequency: 12 issues per year
Published in: journal International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Volume 16, Issue 2 March 2002 , pages 115 - 127
Number of References: 30
Formats available: PDF (English)
Previously published as: International journal of geographical information systems (0269-3798, 1362-3087) until 1996
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Abstract

Rothermel's model is the most widely used fire behaviour model in wildland fire research and management. It is a complex model that considers 17 input variables describing fuel type, fuel moisture, terrain and wind. Uncertainties in the input variables can have a substantial impact on the resulting errors and have to be considered, especially when the results are used in spatial decision making. In this paper it is shown that the analysis of uncertainty propagation can be carried out with the Taylor series method. This method is computationally cheaper than Monte Carlo and offers easy-to-use, preliminary sensitivity estimations.
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