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Fear of Sudden Stops: Lessons From Australia and Chile 1  

Authors: Ricardo J. Caballero a;  Kevin Cowan b; Jonathan Kearns c
Affiliations:   a Massachusetts Institute of Technology and National Bureau of Economic Research,
b Central Bank of Chile,
c Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia,
DOI: 10.1080/13841280500387141
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Volume 8, Issue 4 December 2005 , pages 313 - 354
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
Previously published as: The Journal of Policy Reform (1384-1289, 1477-2736) until 2007
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Abstract

Latin American economies are exposed to substantial external vulnerability. Domestic imbalances and terms of trade shocks are often exacerbated by sharp shifts in the net supply of external capital (sudden stops). At times, these sudden stops can be the main shock. In this paper we explore ways of overcoming external vulnerability, drawing lessons from a detailed comparison of the response of Chile and Australia to recent external shocks and from Australia's historical experience. We argue that in order to understand sudden stops and the mechanisms to smooth them it is useful to identify and then distinguish between two inter-related dimensions of investors' confidence: country-trust and currency-trust. Lack of country-trust is the fundamental problem behind sudden stops. Lack of currency-trust in turn weakens a country's ability to deal with sudden stops and real external shocks. We discuss steps aimed to improve these two dimensions of investors' confidence in the medium run, and policies to reduce the impact of country-trust and currency-trust weaknesses in the short run.
1. This paper is a revised version of the paper prepared for the Financial Dedollarization: Policy Options conference at the Inter-American Development Bank, 1–2 December 2003. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Central Bank of Chile, the Reserve Bank of Australia or any other institution with which they are affiliated. We thank Guy Debelle, Luci Ellis, Darren Flood, Ilan Goldfajn, Simon Guttmann, Paulo Mauro, Tony Richards and Alejandro Werner for their comments. Erwin Hansen provided excellent research assistance.
Keywords: Sudden stops; Australia; Chile
JEL Classification: E44; E52; F31; F33
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