Is it really the Fisher effect?
Author:
Paul A. Johnson a
| Affiliation: | a Department of Economics, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604, USA |
DOI:
10.1080/13504850500396264
Publication Frequency:
18 issues per year
Subjects:
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Formats available:
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Also incorporating: Applied Financial Economics Letters
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Abstract
Many researchers have used a cointegration approach to test for the Fisher effect. This note argues that the cointegration of the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate is consistent with any theory implying a stationary ex post real interest rate and so is not a sufficient condition for the Fisher effect to hold. The sufficient condition is the unpredictability of the inflation forecast error implied by the nominal interest rate and this condition may be tested using the signal extraction framework of Durlauf and Hall (1988, 1989).
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