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Pragmatic approach to decision making under uncertainty: The case of the disjunction effect 

Authors: Maria Bagassi a; Laura Macchi - We are very grateful to Giuseppe Mosconi and Peter Ayton for their comments on a previous draft of this paper.a
Affiliation:   a Universitagrave degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Italy
DOI: 10.1080/13546780500375663
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Thinking & Reasoning, Volume 12, Issue 3 August 2006 , pages 329 - 350
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The disjunction effect (Tversky & Shafir, 1992) occurs when decision makers prefer option x (versus y) when knowing that event A occurs and also when knowing that event A does not occur, but they refuse x (or prefer y) when not knowing whether or not A occurs. This form of incoherence violates Savage's (1954) sure-thing principle, one of the basic axioms of the rational theory of decision making. The phenomenon was attributed to a lack of clear reasons for accepting an option (x) when subjects are under uncertainty. Through a pragmatic analysis of the task and a consequent reformulation of it, we show that the effect does not depend on the presence of uncertainty, but on the introduction of non-relevant goals into the text problem, in both the well-known Gamble problem and the Hawaii problem.
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