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Land use decisions in developing countries and their representation in multi-agent systems 

Authors: Pepijn Schreinemachers a; Thomas Berger a
Affiliation:   a University of Hohenheim (490 e), Stuttgart, Germany
DOI: 10.1080/17474230600605202
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Journal of Land Use Science, Volume 1, Issue 1 June 2006 , pages 29 - 44
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Recent research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) has put more emphasis on the importance of understanding the decision-making of human actors, especially in developing countries. The quest is now for a new generation of LUCC models with a decision-making component. This paper deals with the question of how to realistically represent decision-making in land use models. Two main agent decision architectures are compared. Heuristic agents take sequential decisions following a pre-defined decision tree, while optimizing agents take simultaneous decisions by solving a mathematical programming model. Optimizing behaviour is often discarded as being unrealistic. Yet the paper shows that optimizing agents do have important advantages for empirical land use modelling and that multi-agent systems (MAS) offer an ideal framework for using the strengths of both agent decision architectures. The use of optimization models is advanced with a novel three-stage decision model of investment, production, and consumption to represent uncertainty in models of land use decision-making.
Keywords: LUCC; Agent behaviour; Mathematical programming; Heuristics
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