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Pragmatic Aspects of the Base-rate Fallacy 

Author: Laura Macchi a
Affiliation:   a Universitagrave degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
DOI: 10.1080/14640749508401384
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A, Volume 48, Issue 1 February 1995 , pages 188 - 207
Formats available: PDF (English)

The circumstances under which this title is published have changed:

Reason for change: merged
Date of change: 2006
New ISSN: 1747-0218
New EISSN: 1747-1226

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Abstract

An investigation was made of the role played by verbal structure in the problems used to study the base-rate fallacy, which has traditionally been attributed to the role of heuristics (e.g. causality, specificity). It was hypothesized that elements of the verbal form of text problems led to a misunderstanding of the question or the specific information, rendering obscure the independence of the sets of data (specific information is obtained independently from the base rate). Nine texts were presented to various groups of subjects: four were taken from Tversky and Kahneman (1980) and used as controls; five were obtained by modifying the verbal form of the original in order to reveal or conceal the links between the sets of data. The percentage of base-rate fallacies was greatly reduced with texts in which the independence of the data was clear, regardless of the causality and specificity of the information they contained (which was not changed). This result suggests that there is a need to consider the rules of natural language in order to move towards a better understanding of observed phenomena.
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