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Investigating hypothetical bias: induced-value tests of the referendum voting mechanism with uncertainty 

Authors: Pallab Mozumder a; Robert P. Berrens b
Affiliations:   a The Environmental Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amhest, MA 01003, USA
b Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
DOI: 10.1080/13504850600592408
Publication Frequency: 18 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Economics Letters, Volume 14, Issue 10 August 2007 , pages 705 - 709
First Published: August 2007
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Following Taylor et al. (2001), we design an induced-value experiment to test for hypothetical bias in a referendum voting mechanism. In our experiment, the level of benefit from the public good increases with the number of Yes votes (conditional on the referendum passing by majority rule). This is intended to introduce uncertainty. In contrast to Taylor et al. (2001), we find evidence of significant hypothetical bias in a referendum voting mechanism, when the level of benefits is uncertain. A cheap-talk treatment is shown to eliminate this bias.
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