Finite nonparametric grach model for foreign exchange volatility
Author:
Lijian Yang a
| Affiliation: | a Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI |
DOI:
10.1080/03610920008832548
Publication Frequency:
20 issues per year
Published in:
Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods,
Volume
29,
Issue
5 &
6
2000
, pages 1347
- 1365
Formats available:
PDF
(English)
View Article:
View Article (PDF)
Abstract
GARCH model has been commonly used to describe the volatility of foreign exchange returns, which typically depends on returns many lags before, While the GARCH model provides a simple geometric decaying structure for persistence in time, it restricts tiie impact of variables to Quadratic functions. A finite nonparametric GARCH model is proposed that allows the variables' impact to be a smooth function of any form. A direct local polynomial estimation method for this finite GARCH model is proposed based on results on proportional additive model, and is applied to the German Mark (DEM)/US Dollar (USD) daily returns data. Estimators uf both the decaying rate and the impact function are obtained. Diagnostics show satisfactory out-of-sampie prediction based on the proposed model, which helps to better understand the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility.
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| Keywords: additive model; coefficient parameter; geometric decay; local polynomial; out-of-sample prediction |
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