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Finite nonparametric grach model for foreign exchange volatility 

Author: Lijian Yang a
Affiliation:   a Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
DOI: 10.1080/03610920008832548
Publication Frequency: 20 issues per year
Published in: journal Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Volume 29, Issue 5 & 6 2000 , pages 1347 - 1365
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

GARCH model has been commonly used to describe the volatility of foreign exchange returns, which typically depends on returns many lags before, While the GARCH model provides a simple geometric decaying structure for persistence in time, it restricts tiie impact of variables to Quadratic functions. A finite nonparametric GARCH model is proposed that allows the variables' impact to be a smooth function of any form. A direct local polynomial estimation method for this finite GARCH model is proposed based on results on proportional additive model, and is applied to the German Mark (DEM)/US Dollar (USD) daily returns data. Estimators uf both the decaying rate and the impact function are obtained. Diagnostics show satisfactory out-of-sampie prediction based on the proposed model, which helps to better understand the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility.
Keywords: additive model; coefficient parameter; geometric decay; local polynomial; out-of-sample prediction
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