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HAVE THE EXPERTS BEEN WEIGHED, MEASURED, AND FOUND WANTING? 

Author: Bryan Caplan (Show Biography)
DOI: 10.1080/08913810701499668
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Critical Review, Volume 19, Issue 1 January 2007 , pages 81 - 91
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment is a creative, careful, and mostly convincing study of the predictive accuracy of political experts. My only major complaints are that Tetlock (1) understates the predictive accuracy of experts, and (2) does too little to discourage demagogues from misinterpreting his work as a vindication of the wisdom of the average citizen. Experts have much to learn from Tetlock's epistemological audit, but there is still ample evidence that, compared to laymen, experts are very good.
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