Even with some tactical gains from the surge, there are few remaining alternatives to a galloping civil war in Iraq and regional destabilisation. Insurgencies, like most wars, end in political settlements; indeed most insurgencies have been ended by political settlements. The ability to shape or cajole such settlements out of military victory has never been a strength of the United States' political-military diplomacy. A UN-led effort with an excellent leader and negotiator and the support of key regional and world players will require something close to a revolutionary change in the current outlook; first by the United States and the Iraqi leadership, but also by the UN and the regional and world players.