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The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis 

Authors: Bruno Cacuteoricacutea; Geoff Pughb
Affiliations:   a Department of Economics, University of Split, Faculty of Economics, 21000 Split, Croatia
b Staffordshire University Business School, Stoke-on-Trent, ST4 2DF, UK
DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964500
Publication Frequency: 24 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Economics, Volume 42, Issue 20 August 2010 , pages 2631 - 2644
First Published on: 18 April 2008
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The trade effects of exchange rate variability have been an issue in international economics for the past 30 years. The contribution of this article is to apply meta-regression analysis (MRA) to the empirical literature. On average, exchange rate variability exerts a negative effect on international trade. Yet MRA confirms the view that this result is highly conditional, by identifying factors that help to explain why estimated trade effects vary from significantly negative to significantly positive. MRA evidence on the pronounced heterogeneity of the empirical findings may be instructive for policy: first, by establishing that average trade effects are not sufficiently robust to generalize across countries; and second, by suggesting the importance of hedging opportunities - hence of financial development - for trade promotion. For the practice of MRA, we make a case for checking the robustness of results with respect to estimation technique, model specification and sample.
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