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Re-examining Leader Effects: Have Leader Effects Grown in Australian Federal Elections 1990-2004? 

Authors: Philip Senior a; Peter van Onselen - Philip Senior is undertaking a PhD in Political Science at the University of Sydney. Peter van Onselen is an Associate Professor in Politics and Government at Edith Cowan University.b
Affiliations:   a University of Sydney,
b Edith Cowan University,
DOI: 10.1080/10361140802035754
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Australian Journal of Political Science, Volume 43, Issue 2 June 2008 , pages 225 - 242
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
Previously published as: Politics (0032-3268) until pre-1996
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Abstract

It is well established that the popularity of party leaders exerts an important influence on vote choice in modern federal elections. Significant partisan and class de-alignment have been key drivers of this trend. Although Australia's development in this respect has been slower than in some other liberal democracies, it has nonetheless been significant, and has weakened voters' attachments to the major parties. This article examines six federal elections (1990-2004) and investigates whether the electoral impact of party leader popularity is continuing to grow, or whether the impact, although important, has been relatively stable or declining. We also investigate the impact of different methods of calculating leader effects on their implied size and, drawing on new data available in the most recent Australian Election Study surveys, present an alternative model of leadership effects that has not been assessable previously in the Australian context.
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