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Missile Contagion 

Author: Dennis M. Gormley - Dennis M. Gormley is a Senior Fellow in the Washington DC office of the Monterey Institute's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a faculty member in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh. This essay is drawn from his book Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security. Reprinted by arrangement with Praeger Security International, an imprint of the Greenwood Publishing Group. Copyright © 2008 by Dennis M. Gormley. All rights reserved.
DOI: 10.1080/00396330802329006
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Survival, Volume 50, Issue 4 August 2008 , pages 137 - 154
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Since 2005 an astonishing number of new missile-development programmes have appeared in the Middle East, South Asia and Northeast Asia. The surprising fact is that land-attack cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles, constitute the primary problem, yet ballistic missiles, and defences against them, command virtually the exclusive attention of decision-makers. Perversely, the United States' quest to sell ballistic-missile defences may be hastening cruise-missile proliferation. Knowing that defences are not nearly as effective against cruise missiles as they are against ballistic missiles, several states have turned to the former to complement the latter. Others, frustrated with the high cost of ballistic-missile defence, have turned to cheaper cruise missiles linked to pre-emptive strike doctrines. In either case, absent policy adjustments, the unintended by-product is likely to be regional arms races and crisis instability.
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