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A Novel Estimation Approach for Mixture Transition Distribution Model in High-Order Markov Chains 

Authors: D. G. Chen ab; Y. L. Lio c
Affiliations:   a Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Agricultural Experiment Station, South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota, USA
b Department of Surgery, Sanford School of Medicine, University of South Dakota, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA
c Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, South Dakota, USA
DOI: 10.1080/03610910802715009
Publication Frequency: 10 issues per year
Published in: journal Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, Volume 38, Issue 5 May 2009 , pages 990 - 1003
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

A transformation is proposed to convert the nonlinear constraints of the parameters in the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model into box-constraints. The proposed transformation removes the difficulties associated with the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) process in the MTD modeling so that the MLEs of the parameters can be easily obtained via a hybrid algorithm from the evolutionary algorithms and/or quasi-Newton algorithms for global optimization. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate MTD modeling by the proposed novel approach through a global search algorithm in R environment. Finally, the proposed approach is used for the MTD modelings of three real data sets.
Keywords: Genetic algorithms; High-order temporal dependence; Markov chains; Maximum likelihood estimation; Mixture transition distribution
Mathematics Subject Classification: 65C40; 62M05
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