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Footprints to the future 

Author: Martin Desvaux a
Affiliation:   a Trustee, Optimum Population Trust,
DOI: 10.1080/13623690903142600
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Medicine, Conflict and Survival, Volume 25, Issue 3 July 2009 , pages 221 - 245
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
Previously published as: Journal of the Medical Association for Prevention of War (0265-2196) until 1985
Previously published as: Medicine and War (0748-8009) until 1996
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Abstract

A brief history of the impact of humans on the earth's biosphere and a description of the more serious of these lead into a description of a method of quantifying the overall contemporary impact. The world's available biological resources - assessed by global footprinting data published by the Global Footprinting Network in October 2008 - are compared with the demand for more and more energy by the high, medium and low income group countries. The inescapable conclusion is that, without fossil fuels, the planet cannot support the current population of 6.8 billion, except at significantly lower average levels of consumption. As the population is projected to grow to 9.4 billion by 2050, by which time available energy and earth's biocapacity will have diminished due to the adverse effects of global warming, there is an urgent case for encouraging people to limit family sizes to two or fewer children to avoid the worst effects of the intrinsic resource-consumption mismatch. Examples of countries which have already recognized the problem nationally are described to show that such actions are not only possible and successful, but are becoming increasingly necessary.
Keywords: population; environmental impact; sustainability; biocapacity; ecological footprint; ecological overshoot; global warming; hyperbola; total fertility rate; renewable energy; Keeling curve; Brundtland report
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