There is growing recognition of the new strategic significance of the Arctic. Tensions have been rising between Russia and the four other Arctic Ocean littoral states as climate change alters the region's geostrategic dynamics. There are unresolved disputes among the four NATO members, the fault lines between the NATO states on the one hand and Russia on the other appear to be deepening, and the sense of common space is under pressure. Military conflict, while not likely, cannot entirely be ruled out. There is a risk that the overall strategic objective of maintaining stability could be forgotten. Growing military activity, closer security coordination among the Western states, and inflammatory rhetoric could set off a vicious circle, jeopardising the wide-ranging collaboration put in place since the end of the Cold War.