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Escalation and de-escalation in asymmetric conflict *  

Author: Dean G. Pruitt a
Affiliation:   a Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
DOI: 10.1080/17467580903214501
Publication Frequency: 3 issues per year
Published in: journal Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, Volume 2, Issue 1 March 2009 , pages 23 - 31
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The life cycle of intractable conflict often involves three stages: dispirited quiescence, escalation to a state of intractability, and de-escalation accompanied by negotiation. These stages are produced by three types of perceived power distributions between the advantaged and the disadvantaged groups: highly unequal power, moderately unequal power, and equal (symmetrical) power. Once equality is reached, movement toward de-escalation and negotiation is often hesitant and gradual. It starts with signaling and/or informal communication and - if these produce optimism about reaching a mutually acceptable agreement - may move to back-channel talks. Even more optimism is required for full-scale negotiation to be entered. These theoretical points are supported by two case studies, involving conflicts in Northern Ireland and Israel/Palestine.
* Based on a talk given to the Festschrift Workshop in honor of Christopher Mitchell on “The challenge of conflict resolution in highly asymmetric conflicts,” Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, 28 October 2005.
Keywords: escalation; de-escalation; intractable conflict; power distribution; Northern Ireland; Israel; Palestine; terrorism
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