Volatility surfaces: theory, rules of thumb, and empirical evidence
Authors:
Toby Daglish a;
John Hull b;
Wulin Suo c
| Affiliations: | a School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand |
| b Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Canada | |
| c School of Business, Queen's University, Canada |
DOI:
10.1080/14697680601087883
Publication Frequency:
8 issues per year
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Abstract
Implied volatilities are frequently used to quote the prices of options. The implied volatility of a European option on a particular asset as a function of strike price and time to maturity is known as the asset's volatility surface. Traders monitor movements in volatility surfaces closely. In this paper we develop a no-arbitrage condition for the evolution of a volatility surface. We examine a number of rules of thumb used by traders to manage the volatility surface and test whether they are consistent with the no-arbitrage condition and with data on the trading of options on the S&P 500 taken from the over-the-counter market. Finally we estimate the factors driving the volatility surface in a way that is consistent with the no-arbitrage condition.
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| Keywords: Implied volatility; Volatility surface; Dynamics; No-arbitrage; Empirical results |
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