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Leaving EMU: a real options perspective 

Author: Frank Strobel a
Affiliation:   a Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
DOI: 10.1080/00036840500166308
Publication Frequency: 24 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Economics, Volume 37, Issue 13 July 2005 , pages 1449 - 1453
Number of References: 10
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The real option implicit in a country's decision of whether to leave an existing monetary union when there is uncertainty over the future benefits of this move is examined. The theoretical model used is calibrated for the current Euro-12 area by proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates and debt-to-GDP ratios. A robust group of countries is observed that would choose to remain within EMU consisting of Belgium, Finland, Greece and Italy; France and Spain loosely also belong to this core. Only Luxembourg would robustly want to leave EMU; Ireland and The Netherlands, however, complement that core closely.
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