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Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
Authors:
Tara M. Sinclair a;
H. O. Stekler a;
L. Kitzinger b
| Affiliations: | a Department of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA |
| b Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA |
DOI:
10.1080/00036840701857978
Publication Frequency:
24 issues per year
Published in:
Applied Economics
First Published on:
24 December 2008
Applied Economics
Subjects:
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Formats available:
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(English)
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Abstract
Many studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed's forecasts of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and inflation. This article presents a method for jointly evaluating the direction of change predictions of these variables. We conclude that some of the inflation forecasts, examined separately, were not valuable. However, the joint pattern of GDP and inflation projections was generally in accord with the economy's movements.
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