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India-Pakistan deterrence revisited 

Author: Michael Quinlan - Sir Michael Quinlan, a Consulting Senior Fellow in the IISS South Asia Programme, spent most of his UK Civil Service career in the defence field, especially on nuclear-weapon policy, programmes and doctrine. He was Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Defence 1988-92 and Director of the Ditchley Foundation 1992-99. In 1997 the Royal United Services Institute published his monograph Thinking about Nuclear Weapons.
DOI: 10.1080/00396330500248045
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Survival, Volume 47, Issue 3 October 2005 , pages 103 - 116
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Since the 1999 Kargil conflict and the 2002 confrontation political relations between India and Pakistan have eased considerably, with leaders on both sides spearheading a drive to improve the climate and to do practical business together, including on Kashmir. Nuclear-weapon concepts and doctrines seem to have evolved prudently, though information is limited. The buildup of armouries, slower than some observers foresaw, does not at present threaten deterrent balance, though worries about ballistic missile defence may lie ahead. Further cooperation on confidence-building measures, and dialogue on entrenching stability, remain important. Both countries, but especially Pakistan after the A.Q. Khan scandal, have global responsibilities in the non-proliferation context. Overall, the scene is more reassuring than five years ago, though improvement is not irreversible.
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