Time series AR(1) model for short-tailed distributions
Authors:
Ay
en D. Akkaya a;
Moti L. Tiku a
en D. Akkaya a;
Moti L. Tiku a
| Affiliation: | a Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey |
DOI:
10.1080/02331880512331344036
Publication Frequency:
6 issues per year
Subjects:
Mathematical Statistics;
Statistical Theory & Methods;
Statistics;
Statistics for the Biological Sciences;
Stochastic Models & Processes;
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Abstract
The innovations in AR(1) models in time series have primarily been assumed to have a normal or long-tailed distributions. We consider short-tailed distributions (kurtosis less than 3) and derive modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimators. We show that the MML estimator of φ is considerably more efficient than the commonly used least squares estimator and is also robust. This paper is essentially the first to achieve robustness to inliers and to various forms of short-tailedness in time series analysis.
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| Keywords: Time series; Non-normality; Short-tailedness; Inliers; Skewness; Modified likelihood; Robustness; Hypothesis testing |
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