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Time series AR(1) model for short-tailed distributions 

Authors: Ayscedilen D. Akkaya a; Moti L. Tiku a
Affiliation:   a Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
DOI: 10.1080/02331880512331344036
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Statistics, Volume 39, Issue 2 April 2005 , pages 117 - 132
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The innovations in AR(1) models in time series have primarily been assumed to have a normal or long-tailed distributions. We consider short-tailed distributions (kurtosis less than 3) and derive modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimators. We show that the MML estimator of φ is considerably more efficient than the commonly used least squares estimator and is also robust. This paper is essentially the first to achieve robustness to inliers and to various forms of short-tailedness in time series analysis.
Keywords: Time series; Non-normality; Short-tailedness; Inliers; Skewness; Modified likelihood; Robustness; Hypothesis testing
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