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An Economic Model of Terrorism 

Authors: S. Brock Blomberg a;  Gregory D. Hess b; Akila Weerapana c
Affiliations:   a Economics Department Claremont McKenna College Claremont, California, USA
b Economics Department Claremont McKenna College Claremont, CESifo, California, Munich, USA, Germany
c Economics Department Wellesley College Wellesley, Massachusetts, USA
DOI: 10.1080/07388940490433882
Publication Frequency: 4 issues per year
Published in: journal Conflict Management and Peace Science, Volume 21, Issue 1 2004 , pages 17 - 28
Number of References: 19
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)

The circumstances under which this title is published have changed:

Reason for change: Change of Publisher
Now published by: SAGE Publications
Date of change: 2009



Abstract

We develop an economic model of terrorism. Groups undertake violent activities to change the status quo when they are unable to bring about drastic political change in the face of limited access to economic opportunity. Furthermore, these groups are more likely to resort to terrorist activity when they face powerful policy-making elites who can't be uprooted easily, by legitimate means or otherwise. If, on the other hand, the elite groups currently in power are weak but can't be removed from power legitimately, the dissident groups are likely to initiate rebellion activity, such as civil wars and coups, to take over the rule of the governing elite themselves. In particular, the model exhibits multiple equilibria. For example, one equilibrium can be sustained where groups with limited access to opportunity may find it rational to engage in terrorist activities while policy-maker elites may find it rational not to engage in opening access to these groups. The result is, then, a pattern of reduced economic activity and increased terrorism. An alternative equilibrium can be sustained where access is more abundant and terrorism is reduced.
Keywords: growth; terrorism; political economy
view references (19)
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