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Dynamic Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Manabu Asai a; Michael McAleer b
Affiliations:   a Faculty of Economics, Soka University, Tokyo, Japan
b School of Economics and Commerce, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
DOI: 10.1080/07474930500243035
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 24, Issue 3 July 2005 , pages 317 - 332
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

In the class of stochastic volatility (SV) models, leverage effects are typically specified through the direct correlation between the innovations in both returns and volatility, resulting in the dynamic leverage (DL) model. Recently, two asymmetric SV models based on threshold effects have been proposed in the literature. As such models consider only the sign of the previous return and neglect its magnitude, this paper proposes a dynamic asymmetric leverage (DAL) model that accommodates the direct correlation as well as the sign and magnitude of the threshold effects. A special case of the DAL model with zero direct correlation between the innovations is the asymmetric leverage (AL) model. The dynamic asymmetric leverage models are estimated by the Monte Carlo likelihood (MCL) method. Monte Carlo experiments are presented to examine the finite sample properties of the estimator. For a sample size of T = 2000 with 500 replications, the sample means, standard deviations, and root mean squared errors of the MCL estimators indicate only a small finite sample bias. The empirical estimates for S&P 500 and TOPIX financial returns, and USD/AUD and YEN/USD exchange rates, indicate that the DAL class, including the DL and AL models, is generally superior to threshold SV models with respect to AIC and BIC, with AL typically providing the best fit to the data.
Keywords: Asymmetric effects; Monte Carlo likelihood; Stochastic volatility; Threshold effects
JEL Classification: C220
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