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Modelling the persistence of conditional variances 

Authors: Robert F. Engle a; Tim Bollerslev b
Affiliations:   a Department of Economics, UCSD La Jolla, CA
b Department of Economics, Northwestern University, IL, Evanston
DOI: 10.1080/07474938608800095
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 5, Issue 1 1986 , pages 1 - 50
Full text options: no full text options are available.


Abstract

This paper will discuss the current research in building models of conditional variances using the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) formulations. The discussion will be motivated by a simple asset pricing theory which is particularly appropriate for examining futures contracts with risk averse agents. A new class of models defined to be integrated in variance is then introduced. This new class of models includes the variance analogue of a unit root in the mean as a special case. The models are argued to be both theoretically important for the asset pricing models and empirically relevant. The conditional density is then generalized from a normal to a Student-t with unknown degrees of freedom. By estimating the degrees of freedom, implications about the conditional kurtosis of these models and time aggregated models can be drawn. A further generalization allows the conditional variance to be a non-linear function of the squared innovations. Throughout empirical e imates of the logarithm of the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are presented to illustrate the models.
Keywords: Autoregressive conditioml heteroskedusti-city; Arch; Garch; Integratton in variance; Student-t distrtbu-tion; ConditionaL kurtosis; Time aggregation; Non-linear condi-tiowl heteroskedasttcity; Asset pricing; Exchange rate determination
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