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Positive forward rates in the maximum smoothenss framework 

Authors: Juliaacuten Manzano a; Joumlrgen Blomvall b
Affiliations:   a Division of Applied Physics, Institute of Physics and Measurement Technology, Linkoumlping University, Linkoumlping, Sweden
b Division of Otimization, Department of Mathematics, Linkoumlping University, Sweden
DOI: 10.1080/14697680400000026
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 4, Issue 2 April 2004 , pages 221 - 232
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

In this paper we present a nonlinerar dynamic programming algorithm for the computation of forward rates within the maximum smoothness framework. The algorithm implements the forward rate positivity constraint for a one-parametric family of smoothness measures and it handles price spreads in the constraining data set. We investigate the outcome of the algorithm using thw Swedish Bond market showing examples where the absence of the positive constraint leads to negative interest rates. Furthermore we investigate the predictive accuracy of the algorithm as we move along the family of smoothness measures. Amon other things we onserve that the inclusion of spreads not only improves the smoothness of forward curves but also significantly reduces the predictive error.
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