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Volatility surfaces: theory, rules of thumb, and empirical evidence

Authors: Toby Daglish a;  John Hull b; Wulin Suo c
Affiliations:   a School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
b Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Canada
c School of Business, Queen's University, Canada
DOI: 10.1080/14697680601087883
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 7, Issue 5 October 2007 , pages 507 - 524
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

Implied volatilities are frequently used to quote the prices of options. The implied volatility of a European option on a particular asset as a function of strike price and time to maturity is known as the asset's volatility surface. Traders monitor movements in volatility surfaces closely. In this paper we develop a no-arbitrage condition for the evolution of a volatility surface. We examine a number of rules of thumb used by traders to manage the volatility surface and test whether they are consistent with the no-arbitrage condition and with data on the trading of options on the S&P 500 taken from the over-the-counter market. Finally we estimate the factors driving the volatility surface in a way that is consistent with the no-arbitrage condition.
Keywords: Implied volatility; Volatility surface; Dynamics; No-arbitrage; Empirical results
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