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A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches to Modeling Level Shifts in the Presence of Outliers 

Author: Prasad V. Bidarkota ab
Affiliations:   a Department of Economics, University Park, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA
b Department of Economics, University Park, Miami, FL, USA
DOI: 10.1081/SAC-200033317
Publication Frequency: 10 issues per year
Published in: journal Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, Volume 33, Issue 3 January 2004 , pages 661 - 671
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

We study alternative models for capturing abrupt structural changes (level shifts) in a times series. The problem is confounded by the presence of transient outliers. We compare the performance of non-Gaussian time-varying parameter models and multiprocess mixture models within a Monte Carlo experimental setup. Our findings suggest that once we incorporate shocks with thick-tailed probability distributions, the superiority of the multiprocess mixture models over the time-varying parameter models, reported in an earlier study, disappears. The behavior of the two models, both in adapting to level shifts and in reacting to transient outliers, is very similar.
Keywords: Time-varying parameter (TVP) models; Non-Gaussian state space models; Multiprocess mixture models; Level shifts; Outliers
Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 91B84, 62M10, 60G35; Secondary 62P20, 93E11
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