A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches to Modeling Level Shifts in the Presence of Outliers
Author:
Prasad V. Bidarkota ab
| Affiliations: | a Department of Economics, University Park, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, USA |
| b Department of Economics, University Park, Miami, FL, USA |
DOI:
10.1081/SAC-200033317
Publication Frequency:
10 issues per year
Published in:
Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation,
Volume
33,
Issue
3
January
2004
, pages 661
- 671
Subjects:
Information Theory;
Probability Theory & Applications;
Statistical Computing;
Statistical Theory & Methods;
Statistics & Computing;
Formats available:
HTML
(English)
:
PDF
(English)
View Article:
View Article (PDF)
View Article (HTML)
Abstract
We study alternative models for capturing abrupt structural changes (level shifts) in a times series. The problem is confounded by the presence of transient outliers. We compare the performance of non-Gaussian time-varying parameter models and multiprocess mixture models within a Monte Carlo experimental setup. Our findings suggest that once we incorporate shocks with thick-tailed probability distributions, the superiority of the multiprocess mixture models over the time-varying parameter models, reported in an earlier study, disappears. The behavior of the two models, both in adapting to level shifts and in reacting to transient outliers, is very similar.
|
| Keywords: Time-varying parameter (TVP) models; Non-Gaussian state space models; Multiprocess mixture models; Level shifts; Outliers |
| Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 91B84, 62M10, 60G35; Secondary 62P20, 93E11 |
| view references (10) |

Download Citation

CiteULike
Del.icio.us
BibSonomy
Connotea