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Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume

Authors: V. Plerou a;  P. Gopikrishnan a;  X. Gabaix b;  L. A. N. Amaral a; H. E. Stanley a
Affiliations:   a Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
b Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.
DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/1/2/308
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2 February 2001 , pages 262 - 269
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

We investigate the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of trades [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] - and the price change [iopmath latex="$G_lcubDelta trcub$"] Gt [/iopmath] for a given stock over a time interval [iopmath latex="$[t,~t+Delta t]$"] [tt + t] [/iopmath] . We relate the time-dependent standard deviation of price changes - volatility - to two microscopic quantities: the number of transactions [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] in [iopmath latex="$Delta t$"] t [/iopmath] and the variance [iopmath latex="$W^2_lcubDelta trcub$"] W2t [/iopmath] of the price changes for all transactions in [iopmath latex="$Delta t$"] t [/iopmath] . We find that [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] displays power-law decaying time correlations whereas [iopmath latex="$W_lcubDelta trcub$"] Wt [/iopmath] displays only weak time correlations, indicating that the long-range correlations previously found in [iopmath latex="$vert G_lcubDelta trcub vert$"] |Gt| [/iopmath] are largely due to those of [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] . Further, we analyse the distribution [iopmath latex="$PlcubN_lcubDelta trcub gt xrcub$"] PlcubNt>xrcub [/iopmath] and find an asymptotic behaviour consistent with a power-law decay. We then argue that the tail-exponent of [iopmath latex="$PlcubN_lcubDelta trcub gt xrcub$"] PlcubNt>xrcub [/iopmath] is insufficient to account for the tail-exponent of [iopmath latex="$PlcubG_lcubDelta trcub gt xrcub$"] PlcubGt>xrcub [/iopmath] . Since [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] and [iopmath latex="$W_lcubDelta trcub$"] Wt [/iopmath] display only weak interdependence, we argue that the fat tails of the distribution [iopmath latex="$PlcubG_lcubDelta trcub gt xrcub$"] PlcubGt>xrcub [/iopmath] arise from [iopmath latex="$W_lcubDelta trcub$"] Wt [/iopmath] , which has a distribution with power-law tail exponent consistent with our estimates for [iopmath latex="$G_lcubDelta trcub$"] Gt [/iopmath] . Further, we analyse the statistical properties of the number of shares [iopmath latex="$Q_lcubDelta trcub$"] Qt [/iopmath] traded in [iopmath latex="$Delta t$"] t [/iopmath] , and find that the distribution of [iopmath latex="$Q_lcubDelta trcub$"] Qt [/iopmath] is consistent with a Leacutevy-stable distribution. We also quantify the relationship between [iopmath latex="$Q_lcubDelta trcub$"] Qt [/iopmath] and [iopmath latex="$N_lcubDelta trcub$"] Nt [/iopmath] , which provides one explanation for the previously observed volume-volatility co-movement.
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