A SCORE TEST FOR SEASONAL FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION
Author:
Paramsothy Silvapulle a
| Affiliation: | a Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Australia |
DOI:
10.1081/ETC-100104081
Publication Frequency:
6 issues per year
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Abstract
This paper develops a time domain score statistic for testing fractional integration at zero and seasonal frequencies in quarterly time series models. Further, it introduces the notion of fractional cointegration at different frequencies between two seasonally integrated, I(1) series. In testing problems involving seasonal fractional cointegration, it is argued that the alternative hypothesis is one-sided for which the usual score test may not be appropriate. Therefore, based on ideas in Silvapulle and Silvapulle (1995), a one-sided score statistic is constructed. A simulation study finds that the score statistic generally has desirable size and power properties in moderately sized samples. The score test is applied to the quarterly Australian consumption function. The income and consumption series are found to be I(1) at zero and seasonal frequencies and these two series are not cointegrated at any frequency.
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| Keywords: Seasonal fractional roots; Long-memory; Fractional cointegration; One-sided alternatives; JEL Classification: C12, C22 and C32 |
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