ebooks logo journals logo reference works logo abstract databases logo
bullet  SIGN IN Register | Why Register? | Got a Voucher? alerts   marked lists   shopping cart 

informaworld

HOME   |   SEARCH   |   BROWSE
    Issues List       Latest Issue       Volume 23 Issue 3       Subscribe       Article       References       Related articles      
firstfirst   < prevprev   Table of contentstoc   next >next   last >>last
Publisher Logo Publication Cover
Search within this journal

Forecast Evaluation in the Presence of Unobserved Volatility 1  

Authors: George A. Christodoulakis ab; Stephen E. Satchell c
Affiliations:   a Faculty of Finance, Cass Business School, City University, London, UK
b Bank of Greece, 21 E1 Venizelos Ave., 10250, Athens, Greece
c Trinity College and Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
DOI: 10.1081/ETC-200028199
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Econometric Reviews, Volume 23, Issue 3 January 2005 , pages 175 - 198
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions


Abstract

A number of volatility forecasting studies have led to the perception that the ARCH- and Stochastic Volatility-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the unbiasedness of forecasts. In this paper we provide an analytical assessment of volatility forecasting performance. We use the volatility and log volatility framework to prove how the inherent noise in the approximation of the true- and unobservable-volatility by the squared return, results in a misleading forecast evaluation, inflating the observed mean squared forecast error and invalidating the Diebold-Mariano statistic. We analytically characterize this noise and explicitly quantify its effects assuming normal errors. We extend our results using more general error structures such as the Compound Normal and the Gram-Charlier classes of distributions. We argue that evaluation problems are likely to be exacerbated by non-normality of the shocks and that non-linear and utility-based criteria can be more suitable for the evaluation of volatility forecasts.
1 #The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should in no part be attributed to the Bank of Greece.
Keywords: Compound normal; Expected utility; Forecasting; Gram-Charlier; Mean squared error; Non-normality; Simulation; Stochastic volatility
JEL Classification: G00; C53; C52; C15
view references (51)
Bookmark with:
  • CiteULike
  • Del.icio.us
  • BibSonomy
  • Connotea
  • More bookmarks
Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Accessibility | RSS
FAQs in: English . Français . Español . 中文(简体和繁體)
© 2009 Informa plc