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Estimating GARCH models using support vector machines 1  

Authors: Fernando Peacuterez-cruz a;  Julio A. Afonso-rodriacuteguez b; Javier Giner c
Affiliations:   a Department of Signal Theory and Communications, University Carlos III, Leganeacutes, Madrid, Spain
b Department of Institutional Economics, Economic Statistics and Econometrics, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain
c Department of Financial Economy and Accounting, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain
DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/3/3/302
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 3, Issue 3 June 2003 , pages 163 - 172
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Support vector machines (SVMs) are a new nonparametric tool for regression estimation. We will use this tool to estimate the parameters of a GARCH model for predicting the conditional volatility of stock market returns. GARCH models are usually estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) procedures, assuming that the data are normally distributed. In this paper, we will show that GARCH models can be estimated using SVMs and that such estimates have a higher predicting ability than those obtained via common ML methods.
1 * Paper presented at Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis (APFA) 3, 5-7 December 2001, Museum of London, UK.
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