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Technical trading and the volatility of exchange rates 

Authors: Christian Bauer a; Bernhard Herz a
Affiliation:   a Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultaumlt, Lehrstuhl VWL I, Universitaumlt Bayreuth, D-95440 Bayreuth, Germany
DOI: 10.1080/14697680400008650
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 4, Issue 4 August 2004 , pages 399 - 415
Number of References: 57
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

The microeconomic structure of foreign exchange markets can cause excessive volatility in flexible exchange rate regimes. The market entry of chartists changes the composition of the foreign exchange market and leads to excessive volatility. Our chartist model predicts a continuum of equilibria and a U-shaped relation between exchange rate volatility and the measured trend, which is supported by the empirical evidence. The data show a positive nonlinear relation between trend and volatility as predicted by the model. In such a situation monetary policy may be able to smooth the exchange rate without changing macroeconomic fundamentals.
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