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On arbitrage-free pricing of weather derivatives based on fractional Brownian motion 

Author: Fred Espen Benth ab
Affiliations:   a Centre of Mathematics for Applications, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
b Department of Economics and Business Administration, Agder University College, N-4604 Kristiansand, Norway
DOI: 10.1080/1350486032000174628
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Mathematical Finance, Volume 10, Issue 4 December 2003 , pages 303 - 324
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

We derive an arbitrage-free pricing dynamics for claims on temperature, where the temperature follows a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Using a fractional white noise calculus, one can express the dynamics as a special type of conditional expectation not coinciding with the classical one. Using a Fourier transformation technique, explicit expressions are derived for claims of European and average type, and it is shown that these pricing formulas are solutions of certain Black and Scholes partial differential equations. Our results partly confirm a conjecture made by Brody, Syroka and Zervos.
Keywords: Fractional Brownian motion; weather derivatives; arbitrage; option pricing; partial-differential equations; white noise analysis
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