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Tail behaviour of credit loss distributions for general latent factor models 

Authors: Andreacute Lucas ab;  Pieter Klaassen c;  Peter Spreij d; Stefan Straetmans e
Affiliations:   a Dept. Finance and Financial Sector Management, Vrije Universiteit, NL-1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
b Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam, NL-1018WB, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
c ABN AMRO Bank NV, Financial Markets Risk Management (HQ 2035), NL-1000EA Amsterdam, The Netherlands
d Korteweg-de Vries Institute, University of Amsterdam, NL-1018TV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
e Limburg Institute of Financial Economics (LIFE), Maastricht University, NL-6200MD Maastricht, The Netherlands
DOI: 10.1080/1350486032000160786
Publication Frequency: 6 issues per year
Published in: journal Applied Mathematical Finance, Volume 10, Issue 4 December 2003 , pages 337 - 357
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Using a limiting approach to portfolio credit risk, we obtain analytic expressions for the tail behavior of credit losses. To capture the co-movements in defaults over time, we assume that defaults are triggered by a general, possibly non-linear, factor model involving both systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors. The model encompasses default mechanisms in popular models of portfolio credit risk, such as CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+. We show how the tail characteristics of portfolio credit losses depend directly upon the factor model's functional form and the tail properties of the model's risk factors. In many cases the credit loss distribution has a polynomial (rather than exponential) tail. This feature is robust to changes in tail characteristics of the underlying risk factors. Finally, we show that the interaction between portfolio quality and credit loss tail behavior is strikingly different between the CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+ approach to modeling portfolio credit risk.
Keywords: portfolio credit risk; extreme value theory; tail events; tail index; factor models; economic capital; portfolio quality; second-order expansions
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