Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS
Authors:
F. Fern
ndez-Rodr
guez a;
S. Sosvilla-Rivero b;
J. Andrada-F
lix a
ndez-Rodr
guez a;
S. Sosvilla-Rivero b;
J. Andrada-F
lix a
| Affiliations: | a Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain. |
| b FEDEA and Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Jorge Juan 46, 28001, Madrid. |
DOI:
10.1080/09603100210100891
Publication Frequency:
21 issues per year
Subjects:
Economics;
Macroeconomics;
Number of References: 42
Formats available:
PDF
(English)
View Article:
View Article (PDF)
Abstract
This article assesses the economic significance of the non-linear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1 January 1978-31 December 1994 period, it considers nearest- neighbour non-linear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. The results suggest that in most cases, a trading rule based on a non-linear predictor outperforms the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.
|
| view references (42) : view citations |

Download Citation

CiteULike
Del.icio.us
BibSonomy
Connotea