ebooks logo journals logo reference works logo abstract databases logo
bullet  SIGN IN Register | Why Register? | Got a Voucher? alerts   marked lists   shopping cart 

informaworld

HOME   |   SEARCH   |   BROWSE
    Issues List       Latest Issue       Forthcoming Articles       Volume 6 Issue 1       Subscribe       Article       References       Cited By       Related articles      
<< firstfirst   < prevprev   Table of contentstoc   next >next   last >>last
Publisher Logo Publication Cover
Search within this journal

Stock index and price dynamics in the UK and the US: new evidence from a trading rule and statistical analysis 

Author: Stephen J. Taylor
DOI: 10.1080/135184700336955
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal The European Journal of Finance, Volume 6, Issue 1 March 2000 , pages 39 - 69
Subject: Finance;
Number of References: 16
Formats available: PDF (English)
Article Requests: Order Reprints : Request Permissions
View Article: View Article (PDF) View Article (PDF)


Abstract

The predictability of long time series of stock index levels and stock prices is investigated using both statistical and trading rule methodologies. The trading rule analysis uses a double moving-average rule and the methods of Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron. Results are obtained for the FTA, FTSE-100, DJIA and S&P-500 indices, prices for twelve UK stocks and indices derived from these stock prices. Statistical analysis shows that the index and price series are not random walks. The trading rule analysis generally confirms this conclusion. However, small transaction costs would eliminate the profitability of the moving-average rule. Standard ARMA-ARCH models are estimated for time series of returns and bootstrap methods are used to decide if the models can explain the observed trading statistics. The models provide a reasonable description but there is evidence from the trading rule methodology that standard models sometimes fail to describe the dynamics of the indices and prices. Several comparisons are made: between an index and the stock prices that define the index, between spot levels and futures prices for indices, and between UK and US indices.
Keywords: Stock Prices; Predictability; Trading Rules; Moving Averages; Random Walk Tests; Market Efficiency; Arch Models; Dow Jones Industrial Average; Financial Times Indices
view references (16) : view citations
Bookmark with:
  • CiteULike
  • Del.icio.us
  • BibSonomy
  • Connotea
  • More bookmarks
Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Accessibility | RSS
FAQs in: English . Français . Español . 中文(简体和繁體)
© 2009 Informa plc