A semi-parametric approach to risk management
Authors:
N. H. Bingham a;
R
diger Kiesel bc;
Rafael Schmidt d
diger Kiesel bc;
Rafael Schmidt d
| Affiliations: | a Department of Mathematical Sciences, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK |
b Department of Financial Mathematics, University of Ulm, Helmholtzstra e 18, Germany |
|
| c Department of Statistics, London School of Economics, London, UK | |
| d Department of Number Theory and Probability Theory, University of Ulm, Germany |
DOI:
10.1088/1469-7688/3/6/302
Publication Frequency:
8 issues per year
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Abstract
The benchmark theory of mathematical finance is the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) theory, based on Brownian motion as the driving noise process for stock prices. Here the distributions of financial returns of the stocks in a portfolio are multivariate normal. Risk management based on BSM underestimates tails. Hence estimation of tail behaviour is often based on extreme value theory (EVT). Here we discuss a semi-parametric replacement for the multivariate normal involving normal variance-mean mixtures. This allows a more accurate modelling of tails, together with various degrees of tail dependence, while (unlike EVT) the whole return distribution can be modelled. We use a parametric component, incorporating the mean vector μ and covariance matrix Σ, and a non-parametric component, which we can think of as a density on [0,∞), modelling the shape (in particular the tail decay) of the distribution. We work mainly within the family of elliptically contoured distributions, focusing particularly on normal variance mixtures with self-decomposable mixing distributions. We discuss efficient methods to estimate the parametric and non-parametric components of our model and provide an algorithm for simulating from such a model. We fit our model to several financial data series. Finally, we calculate value at risk (VaR) quantities for several portfolios and compare these VaRs to those obtained from simple multivariate normal and parametric mixture models.
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