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Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of 'random' price changes 

Authors: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud;  Yuval Gefen a;  Marc Potters b; Matthieu Wyart c
Affiliations:   a Condensed Matter Physics Department, Weizmann Institute of Science, 76 100, Rehovot, Israel.
b Science and Finance, Capital Fund Management, 109-111 rue Victor Hugo, 92 532, Levallois Cedex, France.
c Commissariat agrave l'Energie Atomique, Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France.
DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/4/2/007
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 4, Issue 2 April 2004 , pages 176 - 190
Formats available: PDF (English)
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Abstract

Using trades and quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffusion (or anti-persistence). We define and study a model where the price, at any instant, is the result of the impact of all past trades, mediated by a non-constant 'propagator' in time that describes the response of the market to a single trade. Within this model, the market is shown to be, in a precise sense, at a critical point, where the price is purely diffusive and the average response function almost constant. We find empirically, and discuss theoretically, a fluctuation-response relation. We also discuss the fraction of truly informed market orders, that correctly anticipate short-term moves, and find that it is quite small.
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