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A framework to measure integrated risk 

Authors: Elena A. Medova ab; Robert G. Smith ab
Affiliations:   a Centre for Financial Research, Judge Institute of Management, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1AG, UK
b Cambridge Systems Associates Limited, UK
DOI: 10.1080/14697680500117583
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 5, Issue 1 February 2005 , pages 105 - 121
Number of References: 44
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.
Keywords: Risk measurement; Market risk; Credit risk; Pre-settlement risk; Integrated risk; Structural credit models; Economic capital; Foreign exchange forward
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