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Financial contagion, spillovers and causality in the Markov switching framework 

Authors: Jecedildrzej Bialstrokkowski a; Dobromilstrok Serwa a
Affiliation:   a European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Economics, Germany
DOI: 10.1080/14697680500117716
Publication Frequency: 8 issues per year
Published in: journal Quantitative Finance, Volume 5, Issue 1 February 2005 , pages 123 - 131
Number of References: 33
Formats available: HTML (English) : PDF (English)
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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce the concept of causality in the Markov switching framework into the analysis of financial inter-market dependencies. We extend the methodology of testing for financial spillovers between capital markets by explicitly defining contagion, spillovers and independence, and providing statistics to test for the existence of causality. We apply the methodology to stock index returns on the Japanese (Nikkei 225) and the Hong Kong (HSI) markets during the Asian crisis and find no evidence of contagion between the markets, but strong evidence of feedback spillovers between them.
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